Valuation Lab

PBV-ROE Banking Valuation

Fair value framework — big banks + selected banks. PBV = ROE / (COE − g).

Key Assumptions

COE (%)

Terminal Growth (%)

Spread = 4% → Theoretical PBV = ROE / 4

BMRI

Bank Mandiri

Harga (Rp)

BVPS (Rp)

Laba Bersih (T)

Ekuitas (T)

CASA (%)

NIM (%)

BBRI

Bank BRI

Harga (Rp)

BVPS (Rp)

Laba Bersih (T)

Ekuitas (T)

CASA (%)

NIM (%)

BBCA

Bank BCA

Harga (Rp)

BVPS (Rp)

Laba Bersih (T)

Ekuitas (T)

CASA (%)

NIM (%)

BBNI

Bank BNI

Harga (Rp)

BVPS (Rp)

Laba Bersih (T)

Ekuitas (T)

CASA (%)

NIM (%)

BRIS

Bank Syariah Indonesia

Harga (Rp)

BVPS (Rp)

Laba Bersih (T)

Ekuitas (T)

CASA (%)

NIM (%)

NISP

Bank OCBC NISP

Harga (Rp)

BVPS (Rp)

Laba Bersih (T)

Ekuitas (T)

CASA (%)

NIM (%)

Hasil Valuasi

BMRI

Fair Value

Rp 16.196

↑ 128,11% upside

BBRI

Fair Value

Rp 8.000

↑ 90,48% upside

BBCA

Fair Value

Rp 13.295

↑ 39,95% upside

BBNI

Fair Value

Rp 13.351

↑ 273,98% upside

BRIS

Fair Value

Rp 4.443

↑ 149,61% upside

NISP

Fair Value

Rp 5.884

↑ 368,87% upside

Metric	BMRI	BBRI	BBCA	BBNI	BRIS	NISP
Harga	Rp 7.100	Rp 4.200	Rp 9.500	Rp 3.570	Rp 1.780	Rp 1.255
BVPS	Rp 2.950	Rp 1.600	Rp 2.250	Rp 4.332	Rp 1.101	Rp 1.944
PBV (Actual)	2,41x	2,63x	4,22x	0,82x	1,62x	0,65x
ROE	21,96%	20%	23,64%	12,33%	16,14%	12,11%
CASA	78,6%	64%	82,8%	70,6%	60,4%	55%
NIM	5,1%	7,6%	5,8%	4,2%	5,5%	4,2%
Theo PBV (ROE / Spread)	5,49x	5x	5,91x	3,08x	4,04x	3,03x
Premium / Discount	-56,16%	-47,5%	-28,55%	-73,26%	-59,94%	-78,67%
Fair Value (Theo PBV × BVPS)	Rp 16.196	Rp 8.000	Rp 13.295	Rp 13.351	Rp 4.443	Rp 5.884
Upside / Downside	+128,11%	+90,48%	+39,95%	+273,98%	+149,61%	+368,87%

PBV vs ROE Scatter

Garis diagonal = theoretical fair value line (PBV = ROE / 4%). CASA dan NIM menjadi indikator kualitas funding dan margin bank.

5,9x4,7x3,5x2,4x1,2x0x

BMRIPBV 2,41x / ROE 21,96% / CASA 78,6% / NIM 5,1%

BBRIPBV 2,63x / ROE 20% / CASA 64% / NIM 7,6%

BBCAPBV 4,22x / ROE 23,64% / CASA 82,8% / NIM 5,8%

BBNIPBV 0,82x / ROE 12,33% / CASA 70,6% / NIM 4,2%

BRISPBV 1,62x / ROE 16,14% / CASA 60,4% / NIM 5,5%

NISPPBV 0,65x / ROE 12,11% / CASA 55% / NIM 4,2%

0%10%20%30%

ROE

Sensitivitas Asumsi

Tabel ini menunjukkan bagaimana perubahan COE dan growth memengaruhi Theo PBV.

COE / Growth	7%	8%	9%
11%	5x	6,67x	10x
12%	4x	5x	6,67x
13%	3,33x	4x	5x

Sumber: PBV-ROE manual input

Gunakan skenario ini untuk melihat sensitivitas, bukan sebagai target harga.

Kesimpulan

BMRI -56,16% premium ke Theo PBV → undervalued. CASA 78,6% dan NIM 5,1%. Upside 128,11% ke fair value Rp 16.196.

BBRI -47,5% premium ke Theo PBV → undervalued. CASA 64% dan NIM 7,6%. Upside 90,48% ke fair value Rp 8.000.

BBCA -28,55% premium ke Theo PBV → undervalued. CASA 82,8% dan NIM 5,8%. Upside 39,95% ke fair value Rp 13.295.

BBNI -73,26% premium ke Theo PBV → undervalued. CASA 70,6% dan NIM 4,2%. Upside 273,98% ke fair value Rp 13.351.

BRIS -59,94% premium ke Theo PBV → undervalued. CASA 60,4% dan NIM 5,5%. Upside 149,61% ke fair value Rp 4.443.

NISP -78,67% premium ke Theo PBV → undervalued. CASA 55% dan NIM 4,2%. Upside 368,87% ke fair value Rp 5.884.

* Model PBV = ROE / (COE − g). CASA dan NIM bersifat input manual berbasis publikasi bank terbaru; harga saham otomatis dari TradingView. Asumsi COE 12% dan growth 8% bisa disesuaikan di atas.